Area Forecast Discussion

    
                        

317

FXUS63 KSGF 101707

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1207 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry pleasant weather to continue through Wednesday.



- Rain chances expanding from SW to NE late Wednesday night into

  Thursday.



- Daily rain chances Thursday through the weekend. Scattered

  coverage and breaks may inhibit flood potential, but need to

  pay close attention to anywhere that receives rain from

  multiple rounds.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025



It`s a gorgeous night this morning with clear skies, a full moon,

virtually no wind, and temperatures in the mid 50s. We have surface

high pressure and northwest flow aloft to thank for this, as well as

virtually zero PoPs. We`ll continue to enjoy this weather today,

warming up into the low 80s, primarily due to clear skies as

temperature advection will generally be weak.



Heading into tonight, a few clouds begin to filter in from the

southwest as flow becomes more southerly (at the surface) and

westerly (aloft), advecting in moisture ahead of the next system.

Lows will be a bit warmer, ranging from the mid 60s in the west to

the low 50s in the east.



Clouds will build in throughout Wednesday morning, and southerly

flow will get us into the mid to high 80s by afternoon. A good

blanket of clouds will be in place by nighttime, preventing

radiative cooling and allowing lows to stay in the mid to upper

60s.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025



The upper-level wave makes its approach Thursday morning. Models at

this range generally have rain moving into the west/southwest around

sunrise. The energy associated with the shortwave is very broken,

and PoPs remain largely under 40% for the day due to the likelihood

of scattered coverage. Instability looks sufficient for thunder, but

severe ingredients don`t really come together with such a weak

shortwave. However, this wave takes its sweet time passing by, and

supports these scattered thunderstorms for several days.



PoPs on Friday are around 40-60%. PoPs are highest Saturday at 40-

70% as the low pressure center moves directly overhead. As it

rejoins the synoptic pattern Sunday, a positive tilt trough brings

PoPs as high as 60% to the far southeast. Several days of

consecutive rain may again pose a flooding threat depending on

whether those rounds hit the same areas multiple times.



Highs in the low 80s Thursday through Saturday begin to recover

into the mid 80s Sunday as ridging begins to move in behind the

wave. Models indicate it may be short-lived, with an active

pattern continuing into mid- week.



The CPC is still highlighting much of the area as at a slight risk

for excessive heat Tuesday through Friday of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025



VFR through the period with light to variable winds expected.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Nelson

LONG TERM...Nelson

AVIATION...Soria